Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 1 Clube Náutico Capibaribe?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 86¢ · $262 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$262.17
$4.36
93.6¢ → 86.3¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.1¢ | $168.95 | $168.02 | -$0.93 | 38% 156-251 (407) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $59.94 | $59.94 | +$0 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $12.66 | $14.82 | +$2.16 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.5¢ | $7.54 | $9.45 | +$1.91 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $5.13 | $5.72 | +$0.59 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $3.61 | $4.23 | +$0.62 | 30% 399-910 (1309) |
Invested
$168.95
Value
$168.02
PnL
-$0.93
Record
38%
156-251 (407)
Invested
$59.94
Value
$59.94
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$12.66
Value
$14.82
PnL
+$2.16
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.54
Value
$9.45
PnL
+$1.91
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$5.13
Value
$5.72
PnL
+$0.59
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
Invested
$3.61
Value
$4.23
PnL
+$0.62
Record
30%
399-910 (1309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.