Exact Score: Londrina EC 0 - 0 Clube Náutico Capibaribe?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.2K
-$50.49
91.6¢ → 80.2¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 92¢ | $609.16 | $564.13 | -$45.02 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.3¢ | $346.8 | $317.46 | -$29.34 | 46% 292-339 (631) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 87.7¢ | $197.27 | $191.56 | -$5.71 | 38% 156-251 (407) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $12.72 | $33.28 | +$20.56 | 52% 490-447 (937) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.8¢ | $24.57 | $33.04 | +$8.47 | 31% 407-907 (1314) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $15.36 | $15.91 | +$0.55 | 31% 406-905 (1311) |
RN1Invested
$609.16
Value
$564.13
PnL
-$45.02
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$346.8
Value
$317.46
PnL
-$29.34
Record
46%
292-339 (631)
Invested
$197.27
Value
$191.56
PnL
-$5.71
Record
38%
156-251 (407)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.72
Value
$33.28
PnL
+$20.56
Record
52%
490-447 (937)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$33.04
PnL
+$8.47
Record
31%
407-907 (1314)
Invested
$15.36
Value
$15.91
PnL
+$0.55
Record
31%
406-905 (1311)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.