Will Cuiabá EC win on 2026-11-01?

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 1

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$385.81

Smart Money Entry

64.8¢ → 98.6¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,400

Combined PnL+$479.78

Yes5 traders

Total Value$448.42

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL-$93.97

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 82.7¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$192.43	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 45.6¢	$397.38	$729.1	+$331.73	50% 25689-25525 (51214)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 46¢	$382.98	$692.2	+$332.04	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Yesavg 53¢	$445.03	$377.66	-$67.37	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 56.5¢	$110.3	$134.12	+$23.82	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
└ No leg	Noavg 56.5¢	$56.17	$89.02	+$32.86
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 12.6¢	$54.14	$45.1	-$9.03
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 57¢	$49	$48.14	-$0.86	50% 11182-10999 (22181)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 45¢	$30.62	$37.42	+$6.8	53% 16124-14290 (30414)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.1¢	$39.87	$33.29	-$6.57	53% 5677-5082 (10759)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$20.16	$17.56	-$2.61	58% 10691-7671 (18362)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 72¢	$10	$12.5	+$2.5	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 36.8¢	$30.58	$12.03	-$18.55	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
RE retarbCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$6.75	$7.88	+$1.13	48% 4253-4548 (8801)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,882.58

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$192.43

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$397.38

Value

$729.1

PnL

+$331.73

Record

50%

25689-25525 (51214)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$382.98

Value

$692.2

PnL

+$332.04

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Yes

Invested

$445.03

Value

$377.66

PnL

-$67.37

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$110.3

Value

$134.12

PnL

+$23.82

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

Both legs:

No$56.1756.5¢+$32.86

Yes$54.1412.6¢-$9.03

foooool<$100

Invested

$49

Value

$48.14

PnL

-$0.86

Record

50%

11182-10999 (22181)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$30.62

Value

$37.42

PnL

+$6.8

Record

53%

16124-14290 (30414)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.87

Value

$33.29

PnL

-$6.57

Record

53%

5677-5082 (10759)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.16

Value

$17.56

PnL

-$2.61

Record

58%

10691-7671 (18362)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$12.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.58

Value

$12.03

PnL

-$18.55

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

retarbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.75

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$1.13

Record

48%

4253-4548 (8801)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.