Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (55%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Ceará SC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 2.5

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 46¢ · $718 held · ended Oct 27

Over46¢Under54¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$718.34

Combined PnL

$34.15

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 45.5¢

-9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$566.59

Total Shares945

Combined PnL+$36.64

Under3 traders

Total Value$151.75

Total Shares316

Combined PnL-$2.49

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 49.9¢	$429.95	$464.59	+$34.64	50% 24171-23783 (47954)
DE DelidelaDele	Underavg 49¢	$111.18	$108.91	-$2.27	46% 31-36 (67)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$2	58% 40486-29261 (69747)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 48¢	$37.44	$37.44	+$0	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Underavg 50¢	$5.62	$5.4	-$0.22	53% 690-620 (1310)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$429.95

Value

$464.59

PnL

+$34.64

Record

50%

24171-23783 (47954)

DelidelaDele

Under

Invested

$111.18

Value

$108.91

PnL

-$2.27

Record

46%

31-36 (67)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$100

Value

$102

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$37.44

Value

$37.44

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

RichieRicher<$100

Under

Invested

$5.62

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.22

Record

53%

690-620 (1310)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 55%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.