Ceará SC vs. Goiás EC: O/U 0.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 99¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 27

Over99¢Under1¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

87.3¢ → 98.5¢

+13% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over99%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares14,062

Combined PnL-$160.62

Under5 traders

Total Value$645.07

Total Shares3,095

Combined PnL-$901.9

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Overavg 96.7¢	$8.1K	$6.8K	$-1.3K	82% 2334-526 (2860)
JA Jackenxand	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$55.87	97% 2548-86 (2634)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 40¢	$1.3K	$2.4K	+$1.1K	50% 24189-23811 (48000)
RN1CTR	Underavg 38.8¢	$1.4K	$613.89	-$825.43	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
poshposh	Overavg 90.9¢	$359.92	$388.35	+$28.43	60% 9181-6134 (15315)
US User7429	Overavg 69.5¢	$200.44	$284.01	+$83.57	55% 8048-6513 (14561)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$152.47	$151.71	-$0.76	81% 2387-548 (2935)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 26.2¢	$35.59	$16.19	-$19.4	67% 23062-11454 (34516)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 27.5¢	$63.35	$11.88	-$51.46	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 1.7¢	$2.36	$2.05	-$0.31	48% 4427-4886 (9313)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$6.36	$1.06	-$5.3	49% 18478-18900 (37378)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Over

Invested

$8,088.11

Value

$6.8K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

82%

2334-526 (2860)

Jackenxand

Over

Invested

$3,986.88

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$55.87

Record

97%

2548-86 (2634)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,320.09

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

24189-23811 (48000)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,439.32

Value

$613.89

PnL

-$825.43

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$359.92

Value

$388.35

PnL

+$28.43

Record

60%

9181-6134 (15315)

User7429

Over

Invested

$200.44

Value

$284.01

PnL

+$83.57

Record

55%

8048-6513 (14561)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$152.47

Value

$151.71

PnL

-$0.76

Record

81%

2387-548 (2935)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.59

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$19.4

Record

67%

23062-11454 (34516)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$63.35

Value

$11.88

PnL

-$51.46

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.31

Record

48%

4427-4886 (9313)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.36

Value

$1.06

PnL

-$5.3

Record

49%

18478-18900 (37378)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.