Will Goiás EC win on 2026-10-27?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 66¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes34¢No66¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$14.94

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 66¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes34%

No66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,536

Combined PnL-$33.01

Yes3 traders

Total Value$319.16

Total Shares965

Combined PnL+$47.95

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 66.8¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$33.44	50% 24189-23811 (48000)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$351.62	$363.98	+$8.04	58% 1610-1186 (2796)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 32¢	$210.62	$220.38	+$9.76
└ No leg	Noavg 65.3¢	$141.01	$143.61	-$1.72
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$213.29	$216.65	+$3.35	54% 55451-47514 (102965)
└ No leg	Noavg 66.9¢	$153.46	$154.86	+$1.41
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.5¢	$59.84	$61.78	+$1.95
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 28¢	$239.39	$195.01	+$26.04	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$75.09	$91.18	+$16.09	53% 15692-13873 (29565)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$27.16	$32.98	+$5.82	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 66.9¢	$21.05	$21.68	+$0.63	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$13.5	$13.3	-$0.2	54% 6029-5107 (11136)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,669.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$33.44

Record

50%

24189-23811 (48000)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$351.62

Value

$363.98

PnL

+$8.04

Record

58%

1610-1186 (2796)

Both legs:

Yes$210.6232¢+$9.76

No$141.0165.3¢-$1.72

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$213.29

Value

$216.65

PnL

+$3.35

Record

54%

55451-47514 (102965)

Both legs:

Invested

$239.39

Value

$195.01

PnL

+$26.04

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.09

Value

$91.18

PnL

+$16.09

Record

53%

15692-13873 (29565)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.16

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$5.82

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$21.05

Value

$21.68

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.2

Record

54%

6029-5107 (11136)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 66%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.