Will Ceará SC vs. Goiás EC end in a draw?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 63¢ · $297 held · ended Oct 27

Yes38¢No62¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$296.88

Combined PnL

$1.36

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes38%

No63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$100.11

Total Shares142

Combined PnL+$0.72

Yes1 trader

Total Value$45.29

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$0.64

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 62.5¢	$139.8	$151.48	+$2.08	58% 1609-1185 (2794)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.5¢	$100.01	$100.03	+$0.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29¢	$39.79	$51.45	+$2.06
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 72¢	$54	$53.25	-$0.75	58% 27891-20538 (48429)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$44.65	$45.29	+$0.64	50% 24171-23783 (47954)
RN1<$100	Noavg 63¢	$17.53	$17.65	+$0.11	54% 55411-47463 (102874)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 70.7¢	$14.15	$13.9	-$0.25	54% 6018-5104 (11122)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 72¢	$12.96	$12.78	-$0.18	59% 44348-30735 (75083)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$52.69	$2.54	+$1.79	58% 40486-29261 (69747)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$139.8

Value

$151.48

PnL

+$2.08

Record

58%

1609-1185 (2794)

Both legs:

No$100.0162.5¢+$0.02

Yes$39.7929¢+$2.06

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$53.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

58%

27891-20538 (48429)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.65

Value

$45.29

PnL

+$0.64

Record

50%

24171-23783 (47954)

RN1<$100

Invested

$17.53

Value

$17.65

PnL

+$0.11

Record

54%

55411-47463 (102874)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$14.15

Value

$13.9

PnL

-$0.25

Record

54%

6018-5104 (11122)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$12.96

Value

$12.78

PnL

-$0.18

Record

59%

44348-30735 (75083)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$52.69

Value

$2.54

PnL

+$1.79

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 63%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.