Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ceará SC win on 2026-10-27?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 30¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$135.28
39.1¢ → 29.5¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 30%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 39¢ | $599.59 | $457.09 | -$142.49 | 58% 1609-1185 (2794) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 70¢ | $425.43 | $428.47 | +$3.04 | 50% 24171-23783 (47954) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 64.5¢ | $196.01 | $196.68 | +$0.67 | 54% 55411-47463 (102874) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64.5¢ | $112.28 | $122.67 | +$10.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $83.73 | $74.01 | -$9.72 | |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 58.4¢ | $24.28 | $27.63 | +$3.35 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 55.8¢ | $30.45 | $23.33 | -$0.77 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $16.22 | $17.54 | +$1.32 | 53% 15687-13866 (29553) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $9.97 | $10.78 | +$0.81 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
DE DelidelaDele<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $10.57 | $10.28 | -$0.29 | 46% 31-36 (67) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32¢ | $3.2 | $2.95 | -$0.25 | 54% 6018-5104 (11122) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$599.59
Value
$457.09
PnL
-$142.49
Record
58%
1609-1185 (2794)
Invested
$425.43
Value
$428.47
PnL
+$3.04
Record
50%
24171-23783 (47954)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$196.01
Value
$196.68
PnL
+$0.67
Record
54%
55411-47463 (102874)
Both legs:
HRTrading<$100Invested
$24.28
Value
$27.63
PnL
+$3.35
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$30.45
Value
$23.33
PnL
-$0.77
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Invested
$16.22
Value
$17.54
PnL
+$1.32
Record
53%
15687-13866 (29553)
Invested
$9.97
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$0.81
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$10.28
PnL
-$0.29
Record
46%
31-36 (67)
Invested
$3.2
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
6018-5104 (11122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.