Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 5.5
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (14%) · Under at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 14%
1 arb excluded
$2.9K
$74.86
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 92.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.5K | +$166.11 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 95.2¢ | $431 | $392.94 | -$38.06 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 95.2¢ | $301.66 | $296.41 | -$5.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 8.7¢ | $129.34 | $96.52 | -$32.82 | |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 8.2¢ | $16.23 | $12.7 | -$3.53 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 3¢ | $7.34 | $5.09 | -$2.25 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 8.6¢ | $79.47 | $4.6 | -$74.87 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 15¢ | $1.05 | $3.5 | +$2.45 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 4.4¢ | $16.36 | $2.61 | -$13.75 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
RE retarbCTR<$100 | Overavg 9¢ | $1.98 | $1.55 | +$0.7 | 48% 4212-4479 (8691) |
Invested
$2,287.22
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$166.11
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$431
Value
$392.94
PnL
-$38.06
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Both legs:
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$16.23
Value
$12.7
PnL
-$3.53
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$7.34
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$2.25
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$79.47
Value
$4.6
PnL
-$74.87
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$3.5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$16.36
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$13.75
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.7
Record
48%
4212-4479 (8691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.