Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 4.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 99¢ · $352 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 67%
$352.41
$78.13
77.9¢ → 98.9¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 78¢ | $221.52 | $281.16 | +$59.64 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 17.8¢ | $9.69 | $27.15 | +$17.45 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 84.9¢ | $17.83 | $20.77 | +$2.94 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 71¢ | $17.37 | $12.24 | -$5.14 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $3.91 | $8.5 | +$4.59 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 76¢ | $3.96 | $2.6 | -$1.35 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
Invested
$221.52
Value
$281.16
PnL
+$59.64
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$27.15
PnL
+$17.45
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.83
Value
$20.77
PnL
+$2.94
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.37
Value
$12.24
PnL
-$5.14
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$3.91
Value
$8.5
PnL
+$4.59
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
RN1<$100Invested
$3.96
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$1.35
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.