Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 3.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 75¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
1 arb excluded
$9.0K
$1.9K
52.1¢ → 74.5¢
+43% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 52.1¢ | $5.8K | $7.6K | +$1.8K | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 45.3¢ | $488.79 | $492.63 | +$3.08 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
 HRTrading | Underavg 51¢ | $211.28 | $283.59 | +$72.31 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 51.5¢ | $218.35 | $207.83 | -$10.52 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 46.3¢ | $251.61 | $187.9 | -$63.7 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46.3¢ | $170.81 | $105.22 | -$65.59 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 69.9¢ | $80.79 | $82.68 | +$1.89 | |
 poshposhCTR | Overavg 45.1¢ | $136.44 | $137.66 | +$1.23 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 70.5¢ | $21.15 | $21.45 | +$0.3 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 65.5¢ | $6.55 | $6.65 | +$0.1 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 54¢ | $2.16 | $2.18 | +$0.02 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
Invested
$5,810.54
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$488.79
Value
$492.63
PnL
+$3.08
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
HRTradingInvested
$211.28
Value
$283.59
PnL
+$72.31
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$218.35
Value
$207.83
PnL
-$10.52
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$251.61
Value
$187.9
PnL
-$63.7
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Both legs:
poshposhCTRInvested
$136.44
Value
$137.66
PnL
+$1.23
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
RN1<$100Invested
$21.15
Value
$21.45
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$6.55
Value
$6.65
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$2.16
Value
$2.18
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.