Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta: O/U 2.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 84¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 30

Over16¢Under84¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 84¢

+15% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over16%

Under84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$13.4K

Total Shares15,434

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over3 traders

Total Value$249.52

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$216.32

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 67.8¢	$5.7K	$7.0K	+$1.2K	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
GR graziek99	Underavg 87.8¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	-$15.95	88% 390-55 (445)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 53.8¢	$741.48	$1.1K	+$377.83	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 20.7¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$196.4	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
└ Over leg	Overavg 20.7¢	$1.1K	$735.74	-$353.48
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.9¢	$216.85	$373.93	+$157.08
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 76.3¢	$791.38	$798.39	+$7.01	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.2K	$585.89	-$580.71	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$1.0K	$454.97	-$575.66
└ Under leg	Underavg 80.5¢	$135.97	$130.92	-$5.05
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 71¢	$213	$154.5	-$58.5	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 30¢	$56.18	$90.82	+$34.64	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Underavg 77.8¢	$69.21	$68.09	-$1.12	47% 4534-5025 (9559)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 46.9¢	$211.66	$65.15	-$146.51	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 71¢	$41.18	$29.87	-$11.31	58% 28450-21016 (49466)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 39.9¢	$10.63	$16.22	+$5.59	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 78¢	$7.8	$7.9	+$0.1	85% 5136-873 (6009)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 33¢	$3.3	$3.45	+$0.15	50% 33227-32776 (66003)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$5,731.29

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

graziek99

Under

Invested

$4,319.81

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$15.95

Record

88%

390-55 (445)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$741.48

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$377.83

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,306.07

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$196.4

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

Both legs:

Over$1,089.2220.7¢-$353.48

Under$216.8549.9¢+$157.08

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$791.38

Value

$798.39

PnL

+$7.01

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,166.6

Value

$585.89

PnL

-$580.71

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

Both legs:

Over$1,030.6351¢-$575.66

Under$135.9780.5¢-$5.05

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$213

Value

$154.5

PnL

-$58.5

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$56.18

Value

$90.82

PnL

+$34.64

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Under

Invested

$69.21

Value

$68.09

PnL

-$1.12

Record

47%

4534-5025 (9559)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$211.66

Value

$65.15

PnL

-$146.51

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$41.18

Value

$29.87

PnL

-$11.31

Record

58%

28450-21016 (49466)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.63

Value

$16.22

PnL

+$5.59

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$7.8

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.1

Record

85%

5136-873 (6009)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.15

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.