Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Criciúma EC, while the market favors AA Ponte Preta (98%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Criciúma EC (-3.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Criciúma EC (57%) · Criciúma EC at 1.6¢ · $217 held · ended Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
Criciúma EC
7
Criciúma EC 57%
$217.01
-$89.15
12.8¢ → 1.6¢
-88% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCriciúma EC at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors AA Ponte Preta 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | AA Ponte Pretaavg 73.6¢ | $39.7 | $50.75 | +$11.05 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Criciúma ECavg 3.3¢ | $28.08 | $43.07 | +$14.99 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Criciúma ECavg 32¢ | $26.72 | $41.33 | +$14.61 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
 HRTrading<$100 | AA Ponte Pretaavg 90.1¢ | $35.01 | $37.34 | +$2.33 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Criciúma ECavg 20.3¢ | $127.74 | $27.08 | -$100.67 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
RI RichieRicher<$100 | AA Ponte Pretaavg 79¢ | $15.56 | $15.66 | +$0.1 | 53% 722-639 (1361) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Criciúma ECavg 31.8¢ | $33.35 | $1.79 | -$31.57 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
Invested
$39.7
Value
$50.75
PnL
+$11.05
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$28.08
Value
$43.07
PnL
+$14.99
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$26.72
Value
$41.33
PnL
+$14.61
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$35.01
Value
$37.34
PnL
+$2.33
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$127.74
Value
$27.08
PnL
-$100.67
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$15.56
Value
$15.66
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
722-639 (1361)
Invested
$33.35
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$31.57
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.