Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold AA Ponte Preta, while the market favors Criciúma EC (92%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Criciúma EC (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold AA Ponte Preta (38%) · AA Ponte Preta at 8.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30

Criciúma EC92¢AA Ponte Preta8¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

AA Ponte Preta

Consensus Traders

AA Ponte Preta 38%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$159.27

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 8.5¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidAA Ponte Preta at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

AA Ponte Preta

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Criciúma EC 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Criciúma EC92%

AA Ponte Preta9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

AA Ponte Preta3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,898

Combined PnL+$88.39

Criciúma EC5 traders

Total Value$687.57

Total Shares2,221

Combined PnL-$247.66

AA Ponte Preta — 38%Criciúma EC — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	AA Ponte Pretaavg 58.1¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$80.45	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
UP UpTheBlues	Criciúma ECavg 41.4¢	$841.73	$548.51	-$293.23	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Criciúma ECavg 30.7¢	$25.49	$76.63	+$51.15	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Criciúma ECavg 58¢	$54.54	$49.37	-$5.17	49% 19048-19445 (38493)
HRTradingCTR<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 30¢	$13.68	$21.95	+$8.27	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
poshposh<$100	Criciúma ECavg 84¢	$11.03	$11.35	+$0.33	59% 10007-6969 (16976)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	AA Ponte Pretaavg 16¢	$2.1	$1.77	-$0.33	42% 2236-3036 (5272)
VeryLucky888<$100	Criciúma ECavg 71¢	$2.45	$1.71	-$0.74	58% 41580-30193 (71773)

GoalLineGhostCTR

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$1,071.09

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$80.45

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

UpTheBlues

Criciúma EC

Invested

$841.73

Value

$548.51

PnL

-$293.23

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

LuckyLoo<$100

Criciúma EC

Invested

$25.49

Value

$76.63

PnL

+$51.15

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Criciúma EC

Invested

$54.54

Value

$49.37

PnL

-$5.17

Record

49%

19048-19445 (38493)

HRTradingCTR<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$13.68

Value

$21.95

PnL

+$8.27

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

poshposh<$100

Criciúma EC

Invested

$11.03

Value

$11.35

PnL

+$0.33

Record

59%

10007-6969 (16976)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

AA Ponte Preta

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.77

PnL

-$0.33

Record

42%

2236-3036 (5272)

VeryLucky888<$100

Criciúma EC

Invested

$2.45

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$0.74

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

Research grade

AvoidAA Ponte Preta at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

AA Ponte Preta

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Criciúma EC 92%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that AA Ponte Preta wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.