Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-10-30?
8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (89%) · No at 97¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 89%
$14.4K
$35.02
96.8¢ → 97¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 96.9¢ | $7.2K | $7.2K | +$9.18 | 53% 15887-14071 (29958) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 96.7¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | +$8.54 | 58% 41528-30164 (71692) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$5.32 | 50% 33200-32726 (65926) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 96.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$4.64 | 49% 12488-12848 (25336) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 96.5¢ | $954.09 | $959.52 | +$5.44 | 50% 24867-24583 (49450) |
 HRTrading | Noavg 96.5¢ | $245.11 | $246.38 | +$1.65 | 52% 4041-3673 (7714) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97¢ | $145.5 | $145.65 | +$0.15 | 59% 45388-31736 (77124) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $29.1 | $29.12 | +$0.02 | 58% 28432-20995 (49427) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.26 | $0.34 | +$0.08 | 38% 381-620 (1001) |
Invested
$7,154.58
Value
$7.2K
PnL
+$9.18
Record
53%
15887-14071 (29958)
VeryLucky888Invested
$2,369.19
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$8.54
Record
58%
41528-30164 (71692)
Invested
$2,143.11
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$5.32
Record
50%
33200-32726 (65926)
Invested
$1,357.25
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$4.64
Record
49%
12488-12848 (25336)
Invested
$954.09
Value
$959.52
PnL
+$5.44
Record
50%
24867-24583 (49450)
HRTradingInvested
$245.11
Value
$246.38
PnL
+$1.65
Record
52%
4041-3673 (7714)
Invested
$145.5
Value
$145.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
59%
45388-31736 (77124)
Invested
$29.1
Value
$29.12
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
28432-20995 (49427)
Invested
$0.26
Value
$0.34
PnL
+$0.08
Record
38%
381-620 (1001)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.