Will Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$7.5K
-$30.98
96¢ → 99.5¢
+4% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$0.32 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$47.5 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 95¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$0.39 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.5¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$14.1 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 94.5¢ | $693.61 | $725.01 | +$31.4 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $16 | $16.58 | +$0.58 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $5.88 | $4.59 | -$1.29 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
RN1Invested
$2,340.12
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$0.32
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$1,934.79
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$47.5
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$1,380.71
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0.39
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$1,127.26
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$14.1
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
Invested
$693.61
Value
$725.01
PnL
+$31.4
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$16
Value
$16.58
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$5.88
Value
$4.59
PnL
-$1.29
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.