Will Criciúma EC win on 2026-10-30?
9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 100¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
13
Yes 69%
$14.7K
-$421.87
94.8¢ → 99.6¢
+5% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 95.5¢ | $5.1K | $5.0K | -$130.97 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
SN SnakeBall | Yesavg 96¢ | $3.6K | $3.5K | -$61.28 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 92.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.5K | +$126.01 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
LU LuckyLoo | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$90.19 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 8¢ | $618.05 | $438.66 | -$179.39 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $272.99 | $277.54 | +$4.55 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 89¢ | $334.64 | $259.44 | -$75.2 | 57% 1681-1260 (2941) |
TO topdogbigboi | Yesavg 93¢ | $114.75 | $114.37 | -$0.37 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $70.34 | $55.43 | -$15.15 | 53% 15892-14085 (29977) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $17.8 | $6.91 | -$1.9 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100 | Noavg 7¢ | $1.3 | $4.04 | +$3.07 | 52% 2615-2368 (4983) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $0.7 | $1.55 | +$0.85 | 54% 6204-5263 (11467) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $2.37 | $0.46 | -$1.9 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
Invested
$5,145.5
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$130.97
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$3,609.45
Value
$3.5K
PnL
-$61.28
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
RN1Invested
$3,415.21
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$126.01
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$1,550.97
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$90.19
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$618.05
Value
$438.66
PnL
-$179.39
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
HRTradingInvested
$272.99
Value
$277.54
PnL
+$4.55
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
oieshfn345Invested
$334.64
Value
$259.44
PnL
-$75.2
Record
57%
1681-1260 (2941)
Invested
$114.75
Value
$114.37
PnL
-$0.37
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$70.34
Value
$55.43
PnL
-$15.15
Record
53%
15892-14085 (29977)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.8
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$1.9
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
Invested
$1.3
Value
$4.04
PnL
+$3.07
Record
52%
2615-2368 (4983)
Invested
$0.7
Value
$1.55
PnL
+$0.85
Record
54%
6204-5263 (11467)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.37
Value
$0.46
PnL
-$1.9
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.