Criciúma EC vs. AA Ponte Preta: Both Teams to Score
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$7.8K
$347.65
85.4¢ → 91.5¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 85.7¢ | $4.8K | $5.1K | +$298.69 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 85¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$70.6 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 64¢ | $113.4 | $112.41 | -$0.2 | 58% 28450-21016 (49466) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $63.36 | $62.37 | +$0.5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36¢ | $50.04 | $50.04 | -$0.7 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 65.7¢ | $84.17 | $17.97 | -$2.22 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.5¢ | $20.95 | $16.77 | -$4.18 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
TO topdogbigboi<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $13.93 | $13.54 | -$0.39 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.7¢ | $21.63 | $6.77 | -$14.86 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
Invested
$4,840.44
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$298.69
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$2,434.37
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$70.6
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
Invested
$113.4
Value
$112.41
PnL
-$0.2
Record
58%
28450-21016 (49466)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$84.17
Value
$17.97
PnL
-$2.22
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$20.95
Value
$16.77
PnL
-$4.18
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
Invested
$13.93
Value
$13.54
PnL
-$0.39
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$21.63
Value
$6.77
PnL
-$14.86
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.