Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-10-31?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 34¢ · $610 held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
1 arb excluded
$609.99
-$10.99
37.6¢ → 34¢
-10% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 62¢ | $181.54 | $184.47 | +$0 | 53% 15980-14158 (30138) |
OL olivereaCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $171.87 | $162.82 | -$2.26 | 58% 314-225 (539) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $164 | $138.76 | -$7.56 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $83.29 | $83.34 | +$0.84 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $53.32 | $54.18 | +$0.43 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37¢ | $29.97 | $29.16 | +$0.41 | |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $19.95 | $19.37 | -$0.58 | 54% 56681-48879 (105560) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $15.38 | $15.84 | +$0.46 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $2.52 | $2.64 | +$0.12 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $2.95 | $1.75 | -$1.2 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $0.97 | $0.99 | +$0.03 | 39% 426-672 (1098) |
Invested
$181.54
Value
$184.47
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
15980-14158 (30138)
Invested
$171.87
Value
$162.82
PnL
-$2.26
Record
58%
314-225 (539)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$164
Value
$138.76
PnL
-$7.56
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
Invested
$83.29
Value
$83.34
PnL
+$0.84
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Both legs:
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.95
Value
$19.37
PnL
-$0.58
Record
54%
56681-48879 (105560)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$15.84
PnL
+$0.46
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.52
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
Invested
$2.95
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$1.2
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
Invested
$0.97
Value
$0.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
39%
426-672 (1098)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.