Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-10-29?

10 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 100¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 29

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$14.3K

Combined PnL

$237.3

Smart Money Entry

93.5¢ → 99.5¢

+6% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$13.8K

Total Shares14,119

Combined PnL+$385.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$503.72

Total Shares6,678

Combined PnL-$147.74

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 95.4¢	$10.9K	$11.3K	+$354.79	80% 4996-1235 (6231)
RN1	Noavg 84.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0.61	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 82¢	$777.93	$769.41	-$8.52	50% 24720-24419 (49139)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 89.4¢	$453.18	$481.57	+$28.39	52% 13683-12498 (26181)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 8¢	$457	$313.5	-$143.5	49% 674-698 (1372)
HRTrading	Noavg 94.1¢	$101.14	$106.88	+$5.73	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Yesavg 20.6¢	$113.55	$104.98	-$8.57	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$72.26	$76.06	+$3.8	53% 15864-14042 (29906)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 85.3¢	$30.65	$35.15	+$4.5	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 94¢	$13	$12	-$1	54% 6150-5216 (11366)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 99.3¢	$11.92	$11.91	-$0.01	53% 713-638 (1351)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 94¢	$6	$6.06	+$0.06	49% 18867-19279 (38146)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$4.33	$5.09	+$0.76	67% 23223-11629 (34852)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.3	$4.77	+$0.47	58% 18521-13604 (32125)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$3.29	$3.14	-$0.14	38% 365-594 (959)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$1.05	$0.95	-$0.1	47% 2205-2491 (4696)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$10,917.14

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$354.79

Record

80%

4996-1235 (6231)

RN1

Invested

$1,125.28

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0.61

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$777.93

Value

$769.41

PnL

-$8.52

Record

50%

24720-24419 (49139)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$453.18

Value

$481.57

PnL

+$28.39

Record

52%

13683-12498 (26181)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$457

Value

$313.5

PnL

-$143.5

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

HRTrading

Invested

$101.14

Value

$106.88

PnL

+$5.73

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.55

Value

$104.98

PnL

-$8.57

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.26

Value

$76.06

PnL

+$3.8

Record

53%

15864-14042 (29906)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$30.65

Value

$35.15

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$13

Value

$12

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

6150-5216 (11366)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$11.92

Value

$11.91

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

713-638 (1351)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

Value

$6.06

PnL

+$0.06

Record

49%

18867-19279 (38146)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.33

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.76

Record

67%

23223-11629 (34852)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.47

Record

58%

18521-13604 (32125)

OddstormCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.14

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

365-594 (959)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

2205-2491 (4696)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 16 top traders (63%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.