CR Vasco da Gama vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (33%) · Over at 100¢ · $190 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 33%
$190.05
-$35.14
91.6¢ → 100¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ZaiZoiBele | Overavg 92¢ | $194.9 | $171.6 | -$23.3 | 80% 4996-1235 (6231) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | Underavg 8¢ | $4 | $9.5 | +$5.5 | 47% 4509-4987 (9496) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $5 | $4.03 | +$0.23 | 55% 7001-5619 (12620) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $2.41 | $2.47 | +$0.07 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 21¢ | $2.66 | $2.4 | -$0.25 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 21.3¢ | $48.41 | $0.05 | -$17.38 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
ZaiZoiBeleInvested
$194.9
Value
$171.6
PnL
-$23.3
Record
80%
4996-1235 (6231)
Invested
$4
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$5.5
Record
47%
4509-4987 (9496)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$5
Value
$4.03
PnL
+$0.23
Record
55%
7001-5619 (12620)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.41
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.07
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$2.66
Value
$2.4
PnL
-$0.25
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$48.41
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$17.38
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.