Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CR Flamengo leading at halftime?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$1.7K
-$381.52
56.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 79¢ | $944.65 | $640.72 | -$303.92 | 54% 56079-48206 (104285) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 57.3¢ | $612.81 | $496.53 | -$116.28 | 50% 24720-24419 (49139) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 56¢ | $420 | $480 | +$60 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 94¢ | $23.04 | $24.49 | +$1.46 | 52% 3772-3441 (7213) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Yesavg 93¢ | $37.19 | $14.4 | -$22.79 | 49% 18867-19279 (38146) |
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $4.32 | $4.34 | +$0.02 | 81% 2438-554 (2992) |
RN1Invested
$944.65
Value
$640.72
PnL
-$303.92
Record
54%
56079-48206 (104285)
Invested
$612.81
Value
$496.53
PnL
-$116.28
Record
50%
24720-24419 (49139)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$420
Value
$480
PnL
+$60
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$23.04
Value
$24.49
PnL
+$1.46
Record
52%
3772-3441 (7213)
Invested
$37.19
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$22.79
Record
49%
18867-19279 (38146)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.34
PnL
+$0.02
Record
81%
2438-554 (2992)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.