Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-10-29?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (29%) · Yes at 53¢ · $30K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 29%
$29.8K
$78.41
51.9¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmesh | Yesavg 52¢ | $16.2K | $16.4K | +$156.09 | 57% 93-69 (162) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $12.2K | $12.1K | -$127.54 | 49% 12392-12709 (25101) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $602.54 | $621.37 | +$18.83 | 53% 15854-14033 (29887) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $384.84 | $412.7 | +$27.86 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $195.92 | $198.72 | +$2.8 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $12.29 | $12.67 | +$0.38 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $0.92 | $0.91 | -$0.01 | 38% 365-591 (956) |
Invested
$16,233.61
Value
$16.4K
PnL
+$156.09
Record
57%
93-69 (162)
Invested
$12,244.08
Value
$12.1K
PnL
-$127.54
Record
49%
12392-12709 (25101)
Invested
$602.54
Value
$621.37
PnL
+$18.83
Record
53%
15854-14033 (29887)
Invested
$384.84
Value
$412.7
PnL
+$27.86
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$195.92
Value
$198.72
PnL
+$2.8
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
Invested
$12.29
Value
$12.67
PnL
+$0.38
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.91
PnL
-$0.01
Record
38%
365-591 (956)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.