Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 5.5
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 86%
$4.4K
-$604.64
94.5¢ → 99.8¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegatto | Underavg 94.3¢ | $4.1K | $3.0K | $-1.1K | 50% 5777-5884 (11661) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 93.7¢ | $178.79 | $524.35 | +$345.56 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 94¢ | $361.12 | $507.63 | +$146.51 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 97.3¢ | $207.72 | $148.38 | -$59.34 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 3¢ | $7.77 | $80.06 | +$72.29 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 96.1¢ | $49.28 | $35.64 | -$13.64 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
AL alohaa<$100 | Underavg 99.9¢ | $33.26 | $23.14 | -$10.12 | 63% 1192-697 (1889) |
Invested
$4,129.3
Value
$3.0K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
50%
5777-5884 (11661)
Invested
$178.79
Value
$524.35
PnL
+$345.56
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$361.12
Value
$507.63
PnL
+$146.51
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$207.72
Value
$148.38
PnL
-$59.34
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$7.77
Value
$80.06
PnL
+$72.29
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
RN1<$100Invested
$49.28
Value
$35.64
PnL
-$13.64
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$33.26
Value
$23.14
PnL
-$10.12
Record
63%
1192-697 (1889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.