Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 4.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 100¢ · $947 held · ended Oct 28

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$947.29

Combined PnL

$46.57

Smart Money Entry

91.8¢ → 99.6¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$874.6

Total Shares935

Combined PnL+$16.62

Over2 traders

Total Value$72.69

Total Shares632

Combined PnL+$29.94

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 94¢	$655.18	$660.06	+$4.88	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
0xheavy888	Underavg 84¢	$168	$177	+$9	56% 6927-5543 (12470)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Overavg 2.5¢	$8.75	$40.25	+$31.5	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 91.6¢	$34.8	$37.54	+$2.74	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 14¢	$496.77	$32.44	-$1.56	58% 40871-29553 (70424)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$655.18

Value

$660.06

PnL

+$4.88

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$168

Value

$177

PnL

+$9

Record

56%

6927-5543 (12470)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.75

Value

$40.25

PnL

+$31.5

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$34.8

Value

$37.54

PnL

+$2.74

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$496.77

Value

$32.44

PnL

-$1.56

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.