Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 3.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 100¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 56%
$16.0K
-$53.47
99.2¢ → 99.9¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alohaa | Underavg 99.8¢ | $14.8K | $14.6K | -$207.62 | 63% 1192-697 (1889) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 95.7¢ | $803.32 | $918.85 | +$115.53 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 92¢ | $350.62 | $320.97 | -$29.65 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 71¢ | $97.93 | $100.69 | +$2.76 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $25 | $84.38 | +$59.38 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 0.4¢ | $2.08 | $8.3 | +$6.22 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $4.88 | $4.95 | +$0.07 | 53% 2090-1852 (3942) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 30¢ | $4.65 | $4.19 | -$0.46 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 1.1¢ | $0.86 | $1.17 | +$0.31 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
Invested
$14,800.34
Value
$14.6K
PnL
-$207.62
Record
63%
1192-697 (1889)
Invested
$803.32
Value
$918.85
PnL
+$115.53
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$350.62
Value
$320.97
PnL
-$29.65
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$97.93
Value
$100.69
PnL
+$2.76
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$25
Value
$84.38
PnL
+$59.38
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.08
Value
$8.3
PnL
+$6.22
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
Invested
$4.88
Value
$4.95
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
2090-1852 (3942)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$4.65
Value
$4.19
PnL
-$0.46
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.31
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.