Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: O/U 1.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 64¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
7
Over 57%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$6.66
76.2¢ → 64¢
-16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 76.5¢ | $1.2K | $940.15 | -$210.28 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 27¢ | $723.69 | $925.15 | +$201.46 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $742 | $742.37 | +$0.36 | 54% 55758-47850 (103608) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 65¢ | $480.75 | $469.71 | -$11.04 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 35¢ | $261.25 | $272.66 | +$11.4 | |
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 77¢ | $160.93 | $161.98 | +$1.05 | 56% 6920-5536 (12456) |
FO foooool<$100 | Overavg 70¢ | $24.57 | $24.75 | +$0.18 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $18.89 | $19.18 | +$0.29 | 50% 12142-12350 (24492) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $7.76 | $8.27 | +$0.51 | 50% 32806-32358 (65164) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $2.45 | +$0.15 | 58% 28127-20737 (48864) |
Invested
$1,150.43
Value
$940.15
PnL
-$210.28
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
Invested
$723.69
Value
$925.15
PnL
+$201.46
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$742
Value
$742.37
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
55758-47850 (103608)
Both legs:
0xheavy888Invested
$160.93
Value
$161.98
PnL
+$1.05
Record
56%
6920-5536 (12456)
Invested
$24.57
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$0.18
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$18.89
Value
$19.18
PnL
+$0.29
Record
50%
12142-12350 (24492)
Invested
$7.76
Value
$8.27
PnL
+$0.51
Record
50%
32806-32358 (65164)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.45
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
28127-20737 (48864)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.