Will Santos FC win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (58%) · No at 77¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes24¢No76¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$41.95

Smart Money Entry

76.1¢ → 76.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,058

Combined PnL+$30.6

Yes5 traders

Total Value$733.8

Total Shares3,094

Combined PnL+$11.35

No — 58%Yes — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LH lhetorar	Noavg 77¢	$999.99	$1.0K	+$6.49	69% 123-56 (179)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 23.3¢	$640.49	$646.63	+$6.15	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 75.3¢	$576.21	$585.63	+$9.42	50% 12142-12350 (24492)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 74.9¢	$427.04	$436.1	+$9.06	59% 44657-31054 (75711)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Noavg 71.9¢	$1.3K	$209.27	+$22.74	58% 40808-29511 (70319)
└ No leg	Noavg 71.9¢	$153.98	$163.73	+$41.57
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.6¢	$59.38	$45.55	-$18.84
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 77¢	$192.81	$191.9	-$0.91	50% 32806-32358 (65164)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 74¢	$79.52	$80.05	+$0.54	53% 15742-13913 (29655)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 76.1¢	$74.04	$79.88	+$5.84	52% 13577-12420 (25997)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$68.86	$70.29	+$1.43	50% 24390-24013 (48403)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 76¢	$24.89	$25.05	+$0.16	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.08	$6.9	+$2.82	58% 28127-20737 (48864)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 22.8¢	$6.39	$6.58	+$0.19	53% 3109-2775 (5884)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$2.63	$3.39	+$0.76	60% 9411-6401 (15812)

lhetorar

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$6.49

Record

69%

123-56 (179)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$640.49

Value

$646.63

PnL

+$6.15

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$576.21

Value

$585.63

PnL

+$9.42

Record

50%

12142-12350 (24492)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$427.04

Value

$436.1

PnL

+$9.06

Record

59%

44657-31054 (75711)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Invested

$1,250.09

Value

$209.27

PnL

+$22.74

Record

58%

40808-29511 (70319)

Both legs:

No$153.9871.9¢+$41.57

Yes$59.3830.6¢-$18.84

SnakeBall

Invested

$192.81

Value

$191.9

PnL

-$0.91

Record

50%

32806-32358 (65164)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$79.52

Value

$80.05

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

15742-13913 (29655)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$74.04

Value

$79.88

PnL

+$5.84

Record

52%

13577-12420 (25997)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.86

Value

$70.29

PnL

+$1.43

Record

50%

24390-24013 (48403)

foooool<$100

Invested

$24.89

Value

$25.05

PnL

+$0.16

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.08

Value

$6.9

PnL

+$2.82

Record

58%

28127-20737 (48864)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.39

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

3109-2775 (5884)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.63

Value

$3.39

PnL

+$0.76

Record

60%

9411-6401 (15812)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 12 top traders (58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.60

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.