Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 55¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$6.0K
-$45.85
55.7¢ → 54.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 p1252CTR | Yesavg 45¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$28.72 | 54% 101-85 (186) |
 us391 | Noavg 55¢ | $2.4K | $2.4K | -$21.77 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 57.8¢ | $908.02 | $851.64 | -$50.54 | 58% 40747-29469 (70216) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 55.6¢ | $91.16 | $89.38 | -$1.78 | 58% 28119-20724 (48843) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $27.21 | $26.72 | -$0.49 | 53% 15741-13909 (29650) |
p1252CTRInvested
$2,584.99
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$28.72
Record
54%
101-85 (186)
us391Invested
$2,394.72
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$21.77
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
VeryLucky888Invested
$908.02
Value
$851.64
PnL
-$50.54
Record
58%
40747-29469 (70216)
Invested
$91.16
Value
$89.38
PnL
-$1.78
Record
58%
28119-20724 (48843)
Invested
$27.21
Value
$26.72
PnL
-$0.49
Record
53%
15741-13909 (29650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.