Santos FC leading at halftime?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$9.0K
$475.46
88¢ → 100¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 88.4¢ | $4.7K | $5.3K | +$555.54 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 88.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$126.62 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.3¢ | $1.8K | $1.5K | -$274.39 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $233.01 | $634.03 | +$401.02 | |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 87.5¢ | $666.51 | $567.5 | -$99.01 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 86.3¢ | $461.02 | $444.06 | -$16.96 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 88.4¢ | $312.39 | $341.82 | +$29.43 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77¢ | $100.43 | $97.83 | -$2.61 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $60.85 | $69.91 | +$9.06 | 59% 9444-6437 (15881) |
RN1Invested
$4,719.19
Value
$5.3K
PnL
+$555.54
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$2,050.59
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$126.62
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Both legs:
Invested
$666.51
Value
$567.5
PnL
-$99.01
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$461.02
Value
$444.06
PnL
-$16.96
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$312.39
Value
$341.82
PnL
+$29.43
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
VeryLucky888Invested
$100.43
Value
$97.83
PnL
-$2.61
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
poshposh<$100Invested
$60.85
Value
$69.91
PnL
+$9.06
Record
59%
9444-6437 (15881)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.