Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras end in a draw?

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 43¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 28

Yes57¢No43¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$63.41

Smart Money Entry

60.1¢ → 42.5¢

-29% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,541

Combined PnL+$476.44

No7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,236

Combined PnL-$413.03

Yes — 13%No — 87%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 40.8¢	$1.5K	$2.0K	+$476.44	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 69.6¢	$870.91	$571.59	-$299.31	57% 1633-1212 (2845)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 48.7¢	$542.91	$518.29	-$24.62	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$495.05	$464.71	-$30.34	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$320.27	$291.45	-$28.82
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$174.78	$173.26	-$1.52
SN SnakeBallCTR	Noavg 63¢	$269.35	$271.48	+$2.14	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
FO fooooolCTR	Noavg 59¢	$204.64	$150.89	-$53.75	50% 10569-10423 (20992)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	Noavg 67¢	$98.11	$63.67	-$34.44	52% 13588-12429 (26017)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 54.1¢	$21.65	$18.2	-$3.45	54% 6067-5149 (11216)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$19.84	$1.55	+$0.4	58% 40871-29553 (70424)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$1,482.04

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$476.44

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$870.91

Value

$571.59

PnL

-$299.31

Record

57%

1633-1212 (2845)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$542.91

Value

$518.29

PnL

-$24.62

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$495.05

Value

$464.71

PnL

-$30.34

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

Both legs:

No$320.2750¢-$28.82

Yes$174.7855¢-$1.52

SnakeBallCTR

Invested

$269.35

Value

$271.48

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

fooooolCTR

Invested

$204.64

Value

$150.89

PnL

-$53.75

Record

50%

10569-10423 (20992)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$98.11

Value

$63.67

PnL

-$34.44

Record

52%

13588-12429 (26017)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$21.65

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$3.45

Record

54%

6067-5149 (11216)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$1.55

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.