Santos FC vs. SE Palmeiras: Both Teams to Score

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 92¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes8¢No92¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$944.9

Smart Money Entry

50.7¢ → 92¢

+81% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,052

Combined PnL+$948.12

Yes2 traders

Total Value$8.81

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$3.21

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 52.7¢	$1.1K	$1.8K	+$732.56	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 43.3¢	$384.35	$595.22	+$210.87	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 67.1¢	$85.1	$89.36	+$4.26	50% 10569-10423 (20992)
RN1<$100	Noavg 71¢	$14.69	$14.59	-$0.1	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 42¢	$10.77	$11.4	+$0.62	58% 40871-29553 (70424)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$5.7	$5.3	-$0.4	50% 6816-6831 (13647)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 71¢	$4.19	$4.22	+$0.03	50% 24863-24565 (49428)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Yesavg 34.2¢	$6.33	$3.51	-$2.81	53% 2090-1852 (3942)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 88¢	$2.15	$2.04	-$0.11	53% 3186-2848 (6034)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,050.64

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$732.56

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

SnakeBall

Invested

$384.35

Value

$595.22

PnL

+$210.87

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

foooool<$100

Invested

$85.1

Value

$89.36

PnL

+$4.26

Record

50%

10569-10423 (20992)

RN1<$100

Invested

$14.69

Value

$14.59

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$10.77

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.3

PnL

-$0.4

Record

50%

6816-6831 (13647)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.19

Value

$4.22

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

24863-24565 (49428)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.33

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$2.81

Record

53%

2090-1852 (3942)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.04

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.