Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 2.5

2 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Over (11%) · Over at 51¢ · $51K held · ended Oct 30

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 11%

Total Value

$50.9K

Combined PnL

$1.6K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 50.5¢

-5% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$32.1K

Total Shares60,082

Combined PnL+$292.75

Under16 traders

Total Value$18.7K

Total Shares37,055

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Over — 11%Under — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcott	Overavg 53¢	$31.8K	$32.1K	+$296.29	50% 104-105 (209)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$3.6K	$3.8K	+$150.51	50% 24720-24419 (49139)
RN1CTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$3.2K	$3.5K	+$301.05	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
us391CTR	Underavg 46.2¢	$2.3K	$2.7K	+$339.26	51% 1665-1611 (3276)
CA CannaeCTR	Underavg 47.4¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$235.55	53% 15864-14042 (29906)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$257.24	50% 2486-2470 (4956)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$999.99	$1.1K	+$116.9	52% 4694-4411 (9105)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$1.0K	$978.12	-$37.59	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 46¢	$803.62	$812.36	+$8.74	49% 1139-1176 (2315)
HRTradingCTR	Underavg 46.7¢	$701.5	$593.88	-$107.62	52% 3772-3441 (7213)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 46¢	$414	$418.5	+$4.5	59% 9732-6717 (16449)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$284	$318	+$34	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Underavg 48.4¢	$144.14	$157.94	+$13.8	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$70	$79.79	+$9.79	58% 5799-4256 (10055)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Overavg 50¢	$58.96	$55.42	-$3.54	59% 45158-31551 (76709)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$40	$39.6	-$0.4	49% 674-698 (1372)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$34.73	$35.11	+$0.38	50% 3765-3738 (7503)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$9.66	$11.13	+$1.47	38% 365-594 (959)

theowalcott

Over

Invested

$31,784.27

Value

$32.1K

PnL

+$296.29

Record

50%

104-105 (209)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$3,614.71

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$150.51

Record

50%

24720-24419 (49139)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$3,232.39

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$301.05

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

us391CTR

Under

Invested

$2,323.4

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$339.26

Record

51%

1665-1611 (3276)

CannaeCTR

Under

Invested

$2,008.84

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$235.55

Record

53%

15864-14042 (29906)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Under

Invested

$1,690.46

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$257.24

Record

50%

2486-2470 (4956)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$999.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$116.9

Record

52%

4694-4411 (9105)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,015.71

Value

$978.12

PnL

-$37.59

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$803.62

Value

$812.36

PnL

+$8.74

Record

49%

1139-1176 (2315)

HRTradingCTR

Under

Invested

$701.5

Value

$593.88

PnL

-$107.62

Record

52%

3772-3441 (7213)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$414

Value

$418.5

PnL

+$4.5

Record

59%

9732-6717 (16449)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$284

Value

$318

PnL

+$34

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Under

Invested

$144.14

Value

$157.94

PnL

+$13.8

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70

Value

$79.79

PnL

+$9.79

Record

58%

5799-4256 (10055)

UpTheBlues<$100

Over

Invested

$58.96

Value

$55.42

PnL

-$3.54

Record

59%

45158-31551 (76709)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$40

Value

$39.6

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

674-698 (1372)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$34.73

Value

$35.11

PnL

+$0.38

Record

50%

3765-3738 (7503)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.66

Value

$11.13

PnL

+$1.47

Record

38%

365-594 (959)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 18 top traders (11%)16 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.