Grêmio FBPA vs. CA Paranaense: O/U 1.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 30

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$328.12

Smart Money Entry

69.1¢ → 100¢

+45% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,200

Combined PnL+$331.16

Under7 traders

Total Value$34.81

Total Shares329

Combined PnL-$3.04

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ARocky33	Overavg 65¢	$677.21	$1.0K	+$328.94	76% 3985-1257 (5242)
poshposh	Overavg 97¢	$146.07	$149.95	+$3.89	59% 9753-6736 (16489)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 21.4¢	$128.8	$127.58	-$1.22	50% 24765-24464 (49229)
└ Under leg	Underavg 21.4¢	$91.02	$91.52	+$0.49
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.2¢	$37.78	$36.06	-$1.72
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 29.8¢	$13.45	$18.51	+$5.06	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
5D 0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100	Underavg 5.8¢	$11.6	$6.06	-$6.83	—
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 23.6¢	$3.25	$5.64	+$2.39	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 81¢	$6.13	$4.47	-$1.67	50% 3388-3329 (6717)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$1.2	$2.05	+$0.85	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$0.95	$1.56	+$0.61	50% 33132-32669 (65801)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$1.95	$0.98	-$0.98	67% 23228-11641 (34869)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Underavg 14¢	$4.16	$0.01	-$4.15	60% 3307-2217 (5524)

ARocky33

Over

Invested

$677.21

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$328.94

Record

76%

3985-1257 (5242)

poshposh

Over

Invested

$146.07

Value

$149.95

PnL

+$3.89

Record

59%

9753-6736 (16489)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$128.8

Value

$127.58

PnL

-$1.22

Record

50%

24765-24464 (49229)

Both legs:

Under$91.0221.4¢+$0.49

Over$37.7882.2¢-$1.72

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$13.45

Value

$18.51

PnL

+$5.06

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

0x5d40...ba95CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.6

Value

$6.06

PnL

-$6.83

Record

—

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$5.64

PnL

+$2.39

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$6.13

Value

$4.47

PnL

-$1.67

Record

50%

3388-3329 (6717)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.05

PnL

+$0.85

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.56

PnL

+$0.61

Record

50%

33132-32669 (65801)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.95

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.98

Record

67%

23228-11641 (34869)

shiifooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.15

Record

60%

3307-2217 (5524)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.