Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-10-29?

15 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 91¢ · $91K held · ended Oct 30

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$90.9K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 90.5¢

+32% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$28.5K

Total Shares94,902

Combined PnL-$9.9

No15 traders

Total Value$62.2K

Total Shares85,896

Combined PnL+$1.8K

Yes — 17%No — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH theowalcottCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$29.8K	$28.3K	-$13.22	50% 104-105 (209)
RN1	Noavg 69¢	$20.6K	$21.1K	+$515.61	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 68¢	$15.6K	$16.1K	-$459.26	50% 2488-2472 (4960)
CA Cannae	Noavg 68.7¢	$9.0K	$9.1K	+$166.98	53% 15870-14050 (29920)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 69¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$92.3	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 68.6¢	$4.8K	$6.3K	+$1.5K	50% 24765-24464 (49229)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 68.5¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$42	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
0xheavy888	Noavg 68.5¢	$548	$560	+$0	55% 7008-5622 (12630)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 68¢	$258.4	$266	+$7.6	38% 366-596 (962)
tradecraft	Noavg 68¢	$222.02	$228.55	-$6.53	51% 5947-5637 (11584)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 82.1¢	$235.15	$221.94	-$13.21	52% 13692-12503 (26195)
└ No leg	Noavg 82.1¢	$198.11	$168.95	-$29.17
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21¢	$37.04	$53	+$15.96
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 69.4¢	$159.69	$161	+$1.31	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
0X 0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR	Yesavg 30¢	$120	$120	-$0	56% 148-115 (263)
5D 0x5d40...ba95	Noavg 87.6¢	$100.75	$80.5	-$20.25	—
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 73¢	$42.4	$40.64	-$1.76	52% 3834-3490 (7324)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$31.95	$35.27	+$3.32	59% 9753-6736 (16489)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 90¢	$14.86	$11.56	-$3.3	49% 18884-19303 (38187)
BI BillBenter2026<$100	Noavg 65¢	$6.5	$7	+$0.5	58% 18530-13607 (32137)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 90¢	$6	$5	-$1	54% 6164-5227 (11391)

theowalcottCTR

Yes

Invested

$29,758.06

Value

$28.3K

PnL

-$13.22

Record

50%

104-105 (209)

RN1

Invested

$20,577.02

Value

$21.1K

PnL

+$515.61

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$15,614.77

Value

$16.1K

PnL

-$459.26

Record

50%

2488-2472 (4960)

Cannae

Invested

$8,974.48

Value

$9.1K

PnL

+$166.98

Record

53%

15870-14050 (29920)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$6,266.7

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$92.3

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$4,785.87

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

50%

24765-24464 (49229)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$1,918

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$42

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

0xheavy888

Invested

$548

Value

$560

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

7008-5622 (12630)

Oddstorm

Invested

$258.4

Value

$266

PnL

+$7.6

Record

38%

366-596 (962)

tradecraft

Invested

$222.02

Value

$228.55

PnL

-$6.53

Record

51%

5947-5637 (11584)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$235.15

Value

$221.94

PnL

-$13.21

Record

52%

13692-12503 (26195)

Both legs:

No$198.1182.1¢-$29.17

Yes$37.0421¢+$15.96

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$159.69

Value

$161

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

0xbCa82fF9891c5358b33D565C4F4739e4d812b680-1779481574004CTR

Yes

Invested

$120

Value

$120

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

148-115 (263)

0x5d40...ba95

Invested

$100.75

Value

$80.5

PnL

-$20.25

Record

—

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$42.4

Value

$40.64

PnL

-$1.76

Record

52%

3834-3490 (7324)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.95

Value

$35.27

PnL

+$3.32

Record

59%

9753-6736 (16489)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$14.86

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$3.3

Record

49%

18884-19303 (38187)

BillBenter2026<$100

Invested

$6.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

18530-13607 (32137)

Betziko<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

6164-5227 (11391)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 91%

$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 18 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

15 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 90% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 88% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.