Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 4.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 95¢ · $476 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 100%
$475.52
-$4.24
94.1¢ → 95.1¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 94.5¢ | $202.1 | $202.56 | +$0.46 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 93¢ | $139.85 | $134.59 | -$5.26 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 94¢ | $100.24 | $101.17 | +$0.93 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $37.56 | $37.2 | -$0.37 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
Invested
$202.1
Value
$202.56
PnL
+$0.46
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$139.85
Value
$134.59
PnL
-$5.26
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$100.24
Value
$101.17
PnL
+$0.93
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
Invested
$37.56
Value
$37.2
PnL
-$0.37
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.