Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 88¢ · $274 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 63%
$274.37
-$34.32
81.2¢ → 87.6¢
+8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 81.1¢ | $149.15 | $151.68 | +$2.53 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 15.3¢ | $76.49 | $42.59 | -$33.9 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $32.15 | $32.3 | +$0.15 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $30.34 | $28.12 | -$2.22 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $11.73 | $9.95 | -$0.79 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 77¢ | $6.16 | $6.08 | -$0.08 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $1.84 | $1.92 | +$0.08 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 91¢ | $1.82 | $1.74 | -$0.08 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$149.15
Value
$151.68
PnL
+$2.53
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$76.49
Value
$42.59
PnL
-$33.9
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
RN1<$100Invested
$32.15
Value
$32.3
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$30.34
Value
$28.12
PnL
-$2.22
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$11.73
Value
$9.95
PnL
-$0.79
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$6.16
Value
$6.08
PnL
-$0.08
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
Invested
$1.84
Value
$1.92
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$1.74
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.