Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 2.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 79¢ · $730 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$729.65
-$26.27
56.2¢ → 79¢
+41% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 27.8¢ | $304.4 | $290.18 | -$14.22 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 50¢ | $146.97 | $166.07 | +$19.11 | 58% 40871-29553 (70424) |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 62.8¢ | $166.04 | $163.87 | -$2.17 | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 37.8¢ | $88.81 | $58.74 | -$30.07 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
FO foooool<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $18.33 | $18.83 | +$0.5 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $11.93 | $12.13 | +$0.21 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $10.83 | $11.77 | +$0.94 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 70¢ | $8.62 | $8.06 | -$0.55 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$304.4
Value
$290.18
PnL
-$14.22
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
VeryLucky888Invested
$146.97
Value
$166.07
PnL
+$19.11
Record
58%
40871-29553 (70424)
Invested
$166.04
Value
$163.87
PnL
-$2.17
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$88.81
Value
$58.74
PnL
-$30.07
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Invested
$18.33
Value
$18.83
PnL
+$0.5
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
RN1<$100Invested
$11.93
Value
$12.13
PnL
+$0.21
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Invested
$10.83
Value
$11.77
PnL
+$0.94
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.62
Value
$8.06
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.