Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 1.5

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 56¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 28

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$32.57

Smart Money Entry

66.4¢ → 56.5¢

-15% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares4,318

Combined PnL-$273.84

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,907

Combined PnL+$306.42

Over — 43%Under — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 66.8¢	$2.7K	$2.4K	-$294.68	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29¢	$755.15	$1.1K	+$352.6	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
FO forrestgumperCTR	Underavg 41.7¢	$883.8	$880.11	-$3.68	48% 594-646 (1240)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 58¢	$470.92	$515.62	+$44.7	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
└ Over leg	Overavg 58¢	$279.69	$282.1	+$2.41
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$191.23	$233.52	+$42.29
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 58.4¢	$220.87	$250.94	+$30.07	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
FO foooool	Overavg 72.6¢	$149.14	$139.9	-$9.24	50% 10569-10423 (20992)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100	Overavg 68¢	$89.91	$99.9	+$9.99	82% 2349-529 (2878)
└ Over leg	Overavg 68¢	$67.94	$77.93	+$9.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 22¢	$21.98	$21.98	-$0
LA LaarsYCTR	Underavg 56¢	$114.65	$71.72	-$42.93	50% 3375-3318 (6693)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$54.86	$43.68	-$11.17	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77¢	$23.33	$22.27	-$1.06
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$31.52	$21.41	-$10.11
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$2.66	$3.09	+$0.43	58% 40871-29553 (70424)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,709.49

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$294.68

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$755.15

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$352.6

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

forrestgumperCTR

Under

Invested

$883.8

Value

$880.11

PnL

-$3.68

Record

48%

594-646 (1240)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$470.92

Value

$515.62

PnL

+$44.7

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

Both legs:

Over$279.6958¢+$2.41

Under$191.2334¢+$42.29

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$220.87

Value

$250.94

PnL

+$30.07

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

foooool

Over

Invested

$149.14

Value

$139.9

PnL

-$9.24

Record

50%

10569-10423 (20992)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$89.91

Value

$99.9

PnL

+$9.99

Record

82%

2349-529 (2878)

Both legs:

Invested

$114.65

Value

$71.72

PnL

-$42.93

Record

50%

3375-3318 (6693)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$54.86

Value

$43.68

PnL

-$11.17

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

Both legs:

Over$23.3377¢-$1.06

Under$31.5239¢-$10.11

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.66

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.43

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.