Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional: O/U 0.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 20%
2 arb excluded
$8.7K
$3.0K
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 7.4¢ | $1.4K | $4.4K | +$2.9K | 59% 44722-31116 (75838) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 92¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$70.95 | 50% 12172-12403 (24575) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 89.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$34.84 | 50% 24432-24069 (48501) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 89.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$159.06 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 7.3¢ | $103.69 | $297.59 | +$193.9 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 21.3¢ | $103.76 | $106.19 | +$2.43 | 54% 55806-47900 (103706) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 21.3¢ | $74.32 | $78.36 | +$4.05 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 82¢ | $29.45 | $27.83 | -$1.62 | |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 13.1¢ | $25.99 | $54.59 | +$28.59 | 50% 10569-10423 (20992) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 12.6¢ | $16 | $25.44 | +$9.44 | 50% 32842-32398 (65240) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 7¢ | $35.43 | $2.53 | -$32.9 | 53% 3186-2848 (6034) |
Invested
$1,448.11
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$2.9K
Record
59%
44722-31116 (75838)
Invested
$2,628.21
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$70.95
Record
50%
12172-12403 (24575)
Invested
$1,414.16
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$34.84
Record
50%
24432-24069 (48501)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$103.76
Value
$106.19
PnL
+$2.43
Record
54%
55806-47900 (103706)
Both legs:
Invested
$25.99
Value
$54.59
PnL
+$28.59
Record
50%
10569-10423 (20992)
Invested
$16
Value
$25.44
PnL
+$9.44
Record
50%
32842-32398 (65240)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$35.43
Value
$2.53
PnL
-$32.9
Record
53%
3186-2848 (6034)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.