Will SC Internacional win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (14%) · No at 81¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 14%
$3.7K
-$177.56
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA Takon88 | Noavg 80¢ | $3.4K | $3.1K | -$231.99 | 59% 44-30 (74) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 19.9¢ | $260.98 | $255.85 | -$5.14 | 53% 15742-13913 (29655) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 20¢ | $167 | $212.93 | +$45.93 | 50% 24390-24013 (48403) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $62.21 | $75.54 | +$13.33 | 49% 18637-19066 (37703) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $30.07 | $29.32 | -$0.75 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $3.94 | $5.02 | +$1.08 | 50% 12142-12350 (24492) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $1 | $0.98 | -$0.02 | 47% 2075-2359 (4434) |
Invested
$3,374.38
Value
$3.1K
PnL
-$231.99
Record
59%
44-30 (74)
Invested
$260.98
Value
$255.85
PnL
-$5.14
Record
53%
15742-13913 (29655)
Invested
$167
Value
$212.93
PnL
+$45.93
Record
50%
24390-24013 (48403)
Invested
$62.21
Value
$75.54
PnL
+$13.33
Record
49%
18637-19066 (37703)
Invested
$30.07
Value
$29.32
PnL
-$0.75
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
Invested
$3.94
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$1.08
Record
50%
12142-12350 (24492)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
47%
2075-2359 (4434)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.