Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$2.8K
$0.92
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fraj0la | Yesavg 53¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$0 | 63% 226-132 (358) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $513.71 | $513.71 | -$0 | 59% 44606-31005 (75611) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 46.8¢ | $290.76 | $291.76 | +$1.01 | 58% 40754-29472 (70226) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.6¢ | $3.57 | $3.53 | -$0.08 | 53% 3050-2712 (5762) |
fraj0laInvested
$2,002.87
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
63%
226-132 (358)
Invested
$513.71
Value
$513.71
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
44606-31005 (75611)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$290.76
Value
$291.76
PnL
+$1.01
Record
58%
40754-29472 (70226)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.57
Value
$3.53
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
3050-2712 (5762)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.