Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Exact Score: Fluminense FC 0 - 1 SC Internacional?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 43¢ · $100 held · ended Oct 28

Yes43¢No57¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$99.69

Combined PnL

$52.56

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes43%

No57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$56.92

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$37.76

No3 traders

Total Value$42.77

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$14.8

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$6	$37	+$31	58% 40871-29553 (70424)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 67¢	$10.89	$23.14	+$12.25	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 59¢	$13.1	$14.32	+$1.22	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.6¢	$10	$11.4	+$1.4	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.2¢	$3.16	$8.52	+$5.37	53% 3186-2848 (6034)
RN1<$100	Noavg 69¢	$3.98	$5.31	+$1.33	54% 55806-47900 (103706)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$37

PnL

+$31

Record

58%

40871-29553 (70424)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$10.89

Value

$23.14

PnL

+$12.25

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$13.1

Value

$14.32

PnL

+$1.22

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$11.4

PnL

+$1.4

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.16

Value

$8.52

PnL

+$5.37

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

RN1<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$1.33

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 43%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.