Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 9 of 16 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Fluminense FC vs. SC Internacional end in a draw?

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 2.0¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 2¢

-96% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares4,804

Combined PnL+$1.5K

No7 traders

Total Value$272.15

Total Shares788

Combined PnL-$143.97

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 63.1¢	$1.8K	$2.7K	+$878.58	59% 44722-31116 (75838)
oieshfn345CTR	Yesavg 34.3¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$542.44	57% 1633-1212 (2845)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 66.2¢	$213.73	$94.09	-$119.64	52% 13588-12429 (26017)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 36¢	$67.05	$72.64	+$5.59	50% 32842-32398 (65240)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$3.5	$47.75	+$44.25	47% 4462-4936 (9398)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 27¢	$11.07	$36.38	+$25.31	52% 5893-5536 (11429)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 30.6¢	$50.98	$33.29	-$17.69	50% 12172-12403 (24575)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 62.8¢	$28.96	$29.75	+$0.79	54% 55806-47900 (103706)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 67¢	$23.38	$23.21	-$0.17	49% 18665-19093 (37758)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 40.9¢	$28.92	$20.14	-$8.77	50% 24432-24069 (48501)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 65.8¢	$16.29	$19.79	+$3.5	54% 6067-5149 (11216)
PO poposub<$100	Noavg 73¢	$23.71	$19.7	-$4.01	46% 2046-2437 (4483)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$13.8	$13.66	-$0.14	67% 23132-11533 (34665)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 17¢	$8.34	$9.08	+$0.74	59% 9444-6437 (15881)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$4.2	$3.83	-$0.38	58% 18437-13519 (31956)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$1.33	$1.64	+$0.31	53% 3186-2848 (6034)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,844.8

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$878.58

Record

59%

44722-31116 (75838)

oieshfn345CTR

Yes

Invested

$1,156.74

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$542.44

Record

57%

1633-1212 (2845)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$213.73

Value

$94.09

PnL

-$119.64

Record

52%

13588-12429 (26017)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$67.05

Value

$72.64

PnL

+$5.59

Record

50%

32842-32398 (65240)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.5

Value

$47.75

PnL

+$44.25

Record

47%

4462-4936 (9398)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.07

Value

$36.38

PnL

+$25.31

Record

52%

5893-5536 (11429)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$50.98

Value

$33.29

PnL

-$17.69

Record

50%

12172-12403 (24575)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.96

Value

$29.75

PnL

+$0.79

Record

54%

55806-47900 (103706)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$23.38

Value

$23.21

PnL

-$0.17

Record

49%

18665-19093 (37758)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$28.92

Value

$20.14

PnL

-$8.77

Record

50%

24432-24069 (48501)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.29

Value

$19.79

PnL

+$3.5

Record

54%

6067-5149 (11216)

poposub<$100

Invested

$23.71

Value

$19.7

PnL

-$4.01

Record

46%

2046-2437 (4483)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.8

Value

$13.66

PnL

-$0.14

Record

67%

23132-11533 (34665)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$8.34

Value

$9.08

PnL

+$0.74

Record

59%

9444-6437 (15881)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.2

Value

$3.83

PnL

-$0.38

Record

58%

18437-13519 (31956)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.33

Value

$1.64

PnL

+$0.31

Record

53%

3186-2848 (6034)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 16 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

2.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3079.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

3179.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.