Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Clube do Remo vs. Botafogo FR: Both Teams to Score

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 0.1¢ · $424 held · ended Oct 29

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$423.91

Combined PnL

$4.39

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$104.25

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$4.4

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.49

Total Shares3

Combined PnL-$0.01

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO fooooolARB<$100	Yesavg 58.6¢	$389.17	$317.81	-$71.35	50% 10588-10447 (21035)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 58.6¢	$308.62	$208.17	-$100.45
└ No leg	Noavg 44.4¢	$80.55	$109.65	+$29.1
RN1CTR	Noavg 34¢	$98.85	$103.21	+$4.36	54% 55844-47942 (103786)
VeryLucky888<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.49	-$0.01	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 39¢	$1	$1.04	+$0.04	58% 28159-20759 (48918)

fooooolARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$389.17

Value

$317.81

PnL

-$71.35

Record

50%

10588-10447 (21035)

Both legs:

Yes$308.6258.6¢-$100.45

No$80.5544.4¢+$29.1

RN1CTR

Invested

$98.85

Value

$103.21

PnL

+$4.36

Record

54%

55844-47942 (103786)

VeryLucky888<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.49

PnL

-$0.01

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$1.04

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.