Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-10-28?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29

Yes36¢No64¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$17.91

Smart Money Entry

63.8¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,945

Combined PnL-$16.27

Yes2 traders

Total Value$203.25

Total Shares565

Combined PnL-$1.64

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 64¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$18.39	49% 18595-19019 (37614)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 36¢	$186.75	$179.31	-$2.29	58% 40752-29469 (70221)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 61¢	$64.66	$66.78	+$2.12	59% 44606-31003 (75609)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$23.29	$23.94	+$0.65	53% 15741-13910 (29651)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$1,176.84

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$18.39

Record

49%

18595-19019 (37614)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$186.75

Value

$179.31

PnL

-$2.29

Record

58%

40752-29469 (70221)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$64.66

Value

$66.78

PnL

+$2.12

Record

59%

44606-31003 (75609)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.29

Value

$23.94

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

15741-13910 (29651)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.