SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 91¢ · $280 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$279.93
$2.08
87.8¢ → 91¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Underavg 88¢ | $176 | $182 | -$1 | 56% 7074-5669 (12743) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $64.85 | $55.91 | +$0.75 | 58% 41580-30193 (71773) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $13.1 | $14.29 | +$1.19 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 11¢ | $10.12 | $11.04 | +$0.92 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 12¢ | $10.08 | $10.08 | +$0 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 88¢ | $4.4 | $4.38 | -$0.03 | 47% 2290-2563 (4853) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 8¢ | $1.98 | $2.22 | +$0.25 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
0xheavy888Invested
$176
Value
$182
PnL
-$1
Record
56%
7074-5669 (12743)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$64.85
Value
$55.91
PnL
+$0.75
Record
58%
41580-30193 (71773)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$13.1
Value
$14.29
PnL
+$1.19
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
Invested
$10.12
Value
$11.04
PnL
+$0.92
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$4.4
Value
$4.38
PnL
-$0.03
Record
47%
2290-2563 (4853)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$2.22
PnL
+$0.25
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.