SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 95¢ · $559 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 50%
$559.17
-$14.71
89.9¢ → 94.6¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Underavg 90¢ | $500.75 | $509.75 | +$9 | 49% 12512-12895 (25407) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 12.5¢ | $42.53 | $22.15 | -$20.37 | 50% 24902-24623 (49525) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 96¢ | $9.6 | $9.65 | +$0.05 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $8.3 | $8.3 | -$0.01 | 47% 4534-5025 (9559) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 79¢ | $3.95 | $3.83 | -$0.13 | 50% 33227-32776 (66003) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $5.71 | $2.5 | -$3.21 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.5¢ | $1.61 | $1.7 | +$0.1 | 54% 56379-48535 (104914) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 26¢ | $1.43 | $1.29 | -$0.14 | 52% 4099-3733 (7832) |
Invested
$500.75
Value
$509.75
PnL
+$9
Record
49%
12512-12895 (25407)
Invested
$42.53
Value
$22.15
PnL
-$20.37
Record
50%
24902-24623 (49525)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$8.3
Value
$8.3
PnL
-$0.01
Record
47%
4534-5025 (9559)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$3.83
PnL
-$0.13
Record
50%
33227-32776 (66003)
Invested
$5.71
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$3.21
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.61
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
56379-48535 (104914)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.43
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$0.14
Record
52%
4099-3733 (7832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.