SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 76¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 30

Over24¢Under76¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$441.48

Smart Money Entry

61.4¢ → 76¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over24%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares7,561

Combined PnL+$470.25

Over4 traders

Total Value$476.49

Total Shares1,392

Combined PnL-$28.77

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 58.2¢	$3.0K	$3.5K	+$481.75	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 69.4¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$18.3	80% 5031-1239 (6270)
LA LaarsYCTR	Overavg 31.1¢	$238.57	$241.72	+$3.15	50% 3395-3333 (6728)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 46.1¢	$137.14	$129.86	-$7.28	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Overavg 31¢	$139.73	$125.17	-$14.57	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31¢	$104.44	$84.23	-$20.21
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.7¢	$35.29	$40.94	+$5.65
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 37.9¢	$127.2	$102.38	-$24.82	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Underavg 73.7¢	$83.59	$90.18	+$6.59	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$79.61	$78.81	-$0.8	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
RN1<$100	Underavg 72¢	$7.71	$7.88	+$0.16	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 51.8¢	$2.63	$3.47	+$0.84	52% 4099-3733 (7832)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.53	+$0.17	53% 15892-14085 (29977)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$3,010.62

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$481.75

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$1,467.17

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$18.3

Record

80%

5031-1239 (6270)

LaarsYCTR

Over

Invested

$238.57

Value

$241.72

PnL

+$3.15

Record

50%

3395-3333 (6728)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$137.14

Value

$129.86

PnL

-$7.28

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Over

Invested

$139.73

Value

$125.17

PnL

-$14.57

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

Both legs:

Over$104.4431¢-$20.21

Under$35.2964.7¢+$5.65

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$127.2

Value

$102.38

PnL

-$24.82

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Under

Invested

$83.59

Value

$90.18

PnL

+$6.59

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$79.61

Value

$78.81

PnL

-$0.8

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$7.71

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$2.63

Value

$3.47

PnL

+$0.84

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

CannaeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.17

Record

53%

15892-14085 (29977)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.