Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

SC Corinthians Paulista vs. Mirassol FC: O/U 1.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 41¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 30

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$469.56

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 40.5¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,503

Combined PnL+$144.24

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,741

Combined PnL-$613.8

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 54.1¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$99.16	50% 24902-24623 (49525)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 55.3¢	$2.1K	$1.4K	-$632.59	59% 45431-31798 (77229)
RN1CTR	Underavg 36.4¢	$330.47	$330.97	+$0.5	54% 56379-48535 (104914)
LU LuckyLooARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$249.9	$203.89	-$46.01	49% 12512-12895 (25407)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$173.84	$129.48	-$44.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 64.9¢	$76.05	$74.4	-$1.65
CL claudesports<$100	Overavg 40¢	$46.55	$84.38	+$37.82	35% 347-649 (996)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 66.2¢	$69.16	$67.3	-$1.85	38% 3268-5352 (8620)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 25¢	$320	$47.3	+$19.3	58% 41580-30193 (71773)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 49.6¢	$36.36	$45.47	+$9.12	50% 3395-3333 (6728)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Underavg 33¢	$10	$7.73	-$2.27	67% 23292-11694 (34986)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 38.2¢	$3.71	$4.95	+$1.24	50% 33227-32776 (66003)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 35.9¢	$1.09	$1.1	+$0.02	52% 4099-3733 (7832)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$2,128.08

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$99.16

Record

50%

24902-24623 (49525)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,078.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$632.59

Record

59%

45431-31798 (77229)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$330.47

Value

$330.97

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

56379-48535 (104914)

LuckyLooARB<$100

Under

Invested

$249.9

Value

$203.89

PnL

-$46.01

Record

49%

12512-12895 (25407)

Both legs:

Under$173.8449¢-$44.36

Over$76.0564.9¢-$1.65

claudesports<$100

Over

Invested

$46.55

Value

$84.38

PnL

+$37.82

Record

35%

347-649 (996)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$69.16

Value

$67.3

PnL

-$1.85

Record

38%

3268-5352 (8620)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$320

Value

$47.3

PnL

+$19.3

Record

58%

41580-30193 (71773)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$36.36

Value

$45.47

PnL

+$9.12

Record

50%

3395-3333 (6728)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$2.27

Record

67%

23292-11694 (34986)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.71

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$1.24

Record

50%

33227-32776 (66003)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.09

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

4099-3733 (7832)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 41%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.7%

40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$134.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

234.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.